# BUSINESS.md — Ecom Intelligence Engine
# PROPRIETARY — Never share externally. Never reference in public outputs.

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## THE SIGNAL STACK — Product Opportunity Algorithm

This is the core algorithm Oliver and Scout run to find winning ecom products
before the market prices them in. Run in sequence. Never skip layers.

---

### LAYER 1 — PAIN DETECTION

Goal: Find real, unsolved pain. Not trends. Pain.

#### Reddit Scan
Subreddits to monitor (AU-weighted):
- r/supplements
- r/Nootropics
- r/australia
- r/AusFinance
- r/fitness
- r/loseit
- r/FODMAPS
- r/GutHealth
- r/SkincareAddiction
- r/DIY

Search operators to use:
- "anyone know a product that"
- "I wish someone made"
- "why is there no"
- "sick of paying for"
- "tried everything for"
- "nothing works for"
- "can't find in Australia"

Log every hit with: subreddit | post date | upvotes | pain described | product gap implied

#### TikTok Scan
- Search trending hashtags: #supplement #wellness #guthealth #antiinflammatory
  #vitamins #australianwellness #healthtok #cleaneating
- Look for: products with high saves-to-likes ratio (people saving = purchase intent)
- Look for: comment sections saying "where can I get this in Australia"
- Look for: rising audio used in product demos (early signal)

Log: hashtag | video views | save rate estimate | product shown | AU availability gap

#### Amazon AU Scan
- Go to: amazon.com.au → Health & Personal Care → Best Sellers
- Open top 50 products by BSR (Best Seller Rank)
- For each: read ALL 1-star and 2-star reviews
- Mine for: "I wish it also...", "would be perfect if...", "stopped because...",
  "side effects include...", "too expensive for what it is"

Log: product name | BSR | recurring complaint | implied gap | margin estimate

#### Google Trends Scan (AU region)
- Check slope for these seed keywords:
  - "turmeric supplement australia"
  - "anti inflammatory supplement"
  - "gut health supplement australia"
  - "magnesium supplement"
  - "collagen powder australia"
  - "mushroom supplement"
  - "lion's mane"
  - "ashwagandha australia"
  - "greens powder australia"
  - "protein powder women"

- Slope scoring:
  - Rising consistently for 3+ months = 9-10
  - Rising for 1-2 months = 7-8
  - Flat = 5
  - Peaked and declining = 2-3
  - Already saturated = 1

Log: keyword | current interest score | slope | peak date if applicable

---

### LAYER 2 — MARKET SCORING

Run every qualifying idea through this scorecard.
Score each dimension 1-10. Only proceed if average is 7+.

| Dimension | Scoring guide | Score (1-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Emotional resonance | Does it solve acute pain or create strong desire? (10 = yes, visceral) | |
| Saturation (inverted) | How crowded is AU market? (10 = almost nobody doing this well) | |
| Repeat purchase | Consumable, habit-forming, subscription potential? (10 = daily use) | |
| Margin viability | Can we hit >60% gross margin? (10 = yes easily, 1 = impossible) | |
| Supplier availability | Good AU or AliExpress/Zendrop supplier exists? (10 = multiple options) | |
| Trend timing | Where on the curve? (10 = early rising, 1 = peaked/declining) | |

TOTAL AVERAGE: [sum / 6]

Decision rule:
- 7.0+ average → proceed to Layer 3
- 5.0-6.9 → park, revisit in 30 days
- Below 5.0 → kill, log reason, move on

---

### LAYER 3 — COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE

For every idea scoring 7+, run the full teardown on top 3 AU competitors.
Use the Happy Mammoth template below as the gold standard.

#### What to look for
- Where is their traffic coming from? (SimilarWeb estimate)
- What ad angles are they running? (Meta Ad Library: facebook.com/ads/library)
- What emotion do they lead with? (fear, aspiration, identity, pain relief)
- What is their landing page structure? (hook → problem → solution → proof → CTA)
- What does their email sequence look like? (sign up, watch welcome flow)
- What is their pricing architecture? (single, bundle, subscription)
- What upsells/cross-sells do they run?
- What are their negative reviews saying? (Trustpilot, Google, their own site)
- What audience are they NOT serving?
- What product variation do they NOT offer?

#### Gap identification
After teardown, answer these three questions:
1. What audience are they ignoring?
2. What product format or formulation is missing?
3. What claim or angle is nobody owning?

That gap = our positioning.

---

### LAYER 4 — DEMAND VALIDATION

Do this BEFORE building a store. Before ordering product. Before spending on branding.

#### Step 1 — Build a landing page (Carrd.co, free plan)
Structure:
- Headline: [Specific outcome] for [specific audience] — no jargon
- Subhead: One sentence on the pain we're solving
- 3 bullet benefits (outcome-focused, not ingredient-focused)
- Social proof placeholder: "Join [X] Australians who..."
- Email capture: "Get early access + founding member discount"
- CTA button: "Yes, I want this"

No product photos needed yet. No branding needed yet. Just the message.

#### Step 2 — Run $50 Meta test
Campaign setup:
- Objective: Lead generation or Traffic (cheapest signals)
- Audience: AU only, age 25-45, interest targeting relevant to product
- Budget: $50 total, run for 72 hours
- Creative: One static image or simple text card (Canva, 20 mins)
- Copy: Lead with the pain. One sentence. No preamble.

#### Step 3 — Read the signal
| Metric | Green (proceed) | Red (kill) |
|---|---|---|
| CTR (link) | >3% | <1.5% |
| Cost per email capture | <$10 | >$20 |
| Email capture rate | >15% of clicks | <8% |
| Comments/reactions | Positive or curious | Negative or none |

If GREEN on 2+ metrics → proceed to Layer 5 (build store)
If RED → kill this idea. Log what failed. Run next idea from Scout queue.

Note: A kill is not a failure. A kill is data. Log the reason every time.

#### Validation log template
| Date | Product idea | CTR | Cost/email | Capture rate | Decision | Key learning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

---

### LAYER 5 — SCALE TRIGGER

Only reached after green signal in Layer 4.

#### Build sequence (in order, no skipping)
1. Shopify store — Dawn theme, free. Don't customise until you have sales.
2. Product sourced — AliExpress, Zendrop, or AU private label supplier
3. 3 product photos — UGC style, not studio. iPhone is fine.
4. 3 ad creatives — one pain angle, one outcome angle, one social proof angle
5. Email flow — welcome (day 0), education (day 2), offer (day 4), abandon cart (triggered)
6. Meta campaign — scale from $50/day test budget

#### Scaling rules
| Signal | Action |
|---|---|
| ROAS >2.5x for 7 days straight | Increase daily budget by 20% |
| ROAS 1.5-2.5x | Hold, optimise creative |
| ROAS <1.5x after $200 spend | Kill campaign, test new creative |
| ROAS <1.0x after $100 spend | Kill product entirely |

#### AOV expansion (only after ROAS >2.5x confirmed)
- Add bundle (3-pack at 15% discount)
- Add subscription option (10% off, monthly)
- Add complementary product upsell at checkout
- Build SMS flow for repeat purchase trigger (day 25 after first order)

---

## HAPPY MAMMOTH TEARDOWN TEMPLATE

Primary competitor to reverse-engineer: happymammoth.com
They move ~22,000 units/week. This is the gold standard template.
Run this on every major competitor before entering a category.

---
```
## COMPETITOR TEARDOWN: [Brand Name]
Date run: [DATE]
Run by: Scout / Oliver

### BASICS
URL:
Est. monthly revenue: (use SimilarWeb + BSR estimate)
Core product(s):
Price point(s):
Target audience (be specific — age, gender, pain, identity):

### TRAFFIC
Est. monthly visits: (SimilarWeb)
Traffic split: organic / paid / social / email (estimate %)
Top traffic sources:
SEO keywords ranking for: (use Ubersuggest free tier)

### ADS (Meta Ad Library: facebook.com/ads/library)
Number of active ads:
Ad formats used: (image / video / carousel)
Primary emotion they lead with: (fear / aspiration / pain relief / identity / urgency)
Top performing ad angle (based on longest-running ads):
Ad copy pattern:
  - Hook:
  - Problem:
  - Solution:
  - CTA:

### LANDING PAGE
URL of main funnel:
Above-fold hook:
Problem framing:
Solution positioning:
Proof elements: (testimonials / clinical / before-after / media logos)
CTA:
Page length: (short <3 screens / medium 3-6 / long >6)

### PRICING ARCHITECTURE
Single unit price:
Bundle offer:
Subscription offer:
Money-back guarantee: (yes/no + terms)
Free shipping threshold:
Founding/launch price tactics:

### EMAIL SEQUENCE
Welcome email (day 0): subject line + angle
Email 2 (day 2-3): education or story
Email 3 (day 4-5): offer or urgency
Abandon cart: triggered? (yes/no)
Estimated email frequency:

### REVIEWS + SOCIAL PROOF
Trustpilot/Google rating:
Volume of reviews:
Most praised: (what customers love most)
Most complained about: (recurring negatives)
Review patterns:

### FULFILMENT + OPERATIONS
Ships from: (AU local / overseas)
Est. fulfilment time:
Packaging style: (premium / basic / eco)
Subscription model: (yes/no + platform)

### THE GAPS (most important section)
Audience they are NOT serving:
Product format or variation that is MISSING:
Angle or claim NOBODY is owning:
Price point that is UNSERVED:
Distribution channel they are IGNORING:

### COPY THIS (direct tactics to replicate)
1.
2.
3.

### OUR DIFFERENTIATION (how we enter differently)
1.
2.
3.

### OVERALL THREAT LEVEL
[ ] Low — we can enter easily
[ ] Medium — strong competitor but gaps exist
[ ] High — dominant, need very specific niche entry
```

---

## SCOUT NIGHTLY SCAN PROTOCOL

Run every night at 11pm Melbourne time using qwen2.5:14b (local, zero cost).

### Scan sequence
1. Pull Reddit signal (Layer 1 Reddit scan above)
2. Pull Google Trends data for seed keywords (Layer 1 Trends scan)
3. Check Amazon AU BSR top 50 for review gaps (Layer 1 Amazon scan)
4. Score all new ideas found using Layer 2 scorecard
5. Surface only ideas scoring 7.0+ average
6. Cross-reference against existing DECISIONS.md (don't resurface killed ideas)
7. Output report

### Output format (save to ~/workspace/memory/YYYY-MM-DD-scout.md)
```
# Scout Report — [DATE]

## New opportunities found tonight
| Idea | Audience | Pain | Resonance | Saturation | Repeat | Margin | Supply | Trend | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## Recommendation
Top pick: [idea name]
Reason: [2 sentences max]
Next action: Run Layer 3 teardown on [competitor] OR proceed to Layer 4 validation

## Ideas parked (5.0-6.9)
- [idea]: [score] — revisit [date]

## Ideas killed (<5.0)
- [idea]: [score] — reason: [one line]

## Trends to watch
- [keyword]: slope [rising/flat/falling], current interest [score]
```

### Post to Telegram
After saving report, post summary to "Overnight Research" topic:
- Top opportunity name + score
- One-line reason it's interesting
- Recommended next action
- Link to full report file

---

## CURRENT PRODUCT PIPELINE

| Idea | Layer | Score | Last action | Next action | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric anti-inflammatory (AU niche) | 1 | TBD | Identified | Run Layer 2 scoring | Pending |
| Wellness vitamins (Happy Mammoth model) | 1 | TBD | Identified | Run HM teardown | Pending |

---

## B2B PRODUCTISATION NOTES

Document everything as you build. This system becomes the product.

Every time Oliver or Scout runs a process, log:
- What was the input?
- What model was used?
- How long did it take?
- What was the output quality?
- What would a business owner pay for this output?

Target B2B use case: Existing supplement/wellness/ecom businesses that want
AI-driven product research and validation without building it themselves.
Pricing hypothesis: $2K-$5K/month retainer OR $500-$1K per product validation report.
Timeline: Prove on own store first. Productise at $10K/month ecom revenue.